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[Hank's Mail]Warren Buffett's Stock Picks

Hank's Mail 행크 안(=안홍철) 외부필자 |입력 : 2007.09.07 12:25|조회 : 11308
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[Hank's Mail]Warren Buffett's Stock Picks
Dear all,


Good morning!


Stocks ran up across the board this week as investors took comments from President Bush and FRB Chairman Ben Bernanke as reassuring signs on mortgage and credit markets. A report from Moody's is supportive of these signs that American consumers are defaulting on their credit cards at a sharply higher rate compared to last year due to the recent sub-prime mortgage market crisis. Also, dips in manufacturing growth and construction spending raised investors' hopes for an interest rate cut.


Meanwhile, there are critics insisting that government-sponsored price supports make things worse in the long run, based on their belief that both speculators motivated by greed and fueled by ignorance and fly-by-night lenders deserve to take their drubbings. Also, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that GDP growth rate for the second quarter was revised to 4.0 percent from 3.4 percent and year-over-year personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator stayed at 1.9 percent ? within the Fed’s comfort range.


Still, we should note that the fed hasn’t yet said it will lower the benchmark Fed funds rate. Let’s see what will happen at the next FOMC meeting on September 18.


In this jittery stock market, we need to sharpen our investment knowledge by learning from an investment guru like Warren Buffett, of his portfolio and the logic behind his stock picks, although the crown of the world’s richest man was handed down to Mexican business tycoon Carlos Slim who owns 30% stake in Latin American wireless provider America Movil.


The current investment world, including mutual and hedge fund managers is focusing on annual performance, and more recently even on quarterly and monthly performance. However, Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, benefits by taking stakes in companies whose investment theses may take three to five years to play out, given that the majority of his portfolio rarely changes.


Let’s now take a look at the Form 13-F Warren Buffett filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pursuant to Section 13 (F) of the Stock Exchange Act of 1934. His top 10 holdings are Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, American Express, Proctor & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, Wesco Financial, Moody’s, Anheuser-Busch, ConocoPhillips.


What we can learn from here is that his current holdings are classic Buffett stocks ? low-tech companies with both wide competitive moats that generate substantial cash flow and long histories of success. Most of these companies are no-brainers with household names, like Coca-Cola (e.g., coke), American Express (e.g., credit card), P&G (e.g, Gillette), J&J (consumer health-care products), Anheuser-Bush (e.g., Budweiser) and ConocoPhillips (e.g., gas station).


Warren’s list shows that he loves industry leaders with protective moats or brands around their businesses. These brands are so firmly ingrained in consumers’ minds that their competitors must have a rough time of it. Besides brand, a competitive edge could be an entrenched distribution system, a unique corporate culture, a strong network, or a protected patent. For instance, railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe has the shortest transcontinental route of its competitors.


These rock-solid companies with sustainable competitive edges can be called “rule makers” in their industries, which generate high returns on capital and maintain clean balance sheets, making them excellent long-term investments.


Have a good weekend at the crossroads of outgoing summer and incoming autumn!


Hank


[Jenny’s Pearl Necklace]


The cheerful girl with bouncy golden curls was almost five. Waiting with her mother at the checkout stand, she saw them: a circle of glistening white pearls in a pink foil box.


“Oh please, Mommy. Can I have them? Please, Mommy, please!” Quickly the mother checked the back of the little foil box and then looked back into the pleading blue eyes of her little girl's upturned face.


“A dollar ninety-five. That's almost $2. If you really want them, I’ll think of some extra chores for you and in no time you can save enough money to buy them yourself. Your birthday’s only a week away and you might get another crisp dollar bill from Grandma.” As soon as Jenny got home, she emptied her piggy bank and counted out 17 pennies. After dinner, she did more than her share of chores. She went to the neighbor, Mrs. McJames, and asked if she could pick dandelions for ten cents. On her birthday, Grandma did give her another new dollar bill and at last she had enough money to buy the necklace.


Jenny loved her pearls. They made her feel dressed up and grown up. She wore them everywhere - Sunday school, kindergarten, even to bed. The only time she took them off was when she went swimming or had a bubble bath. Mother had told her that if they got wet, they might turn her neck green.


Jenny had a very loving daddy and every night when she was ready for bed, he would stop whatever he was doing and come upstairs to read her a story. One night when he finished the story, he asked Jenny, “Do you love me?”


“Oh yes, Daddy. You know that I love you.”


“Then may I have your pearls?”


“Oh, Daddy, not my pearls. But you can have Princess - the white horse from my collection. The one with the pink tail. Remember, Daddy? The one you gave me. She’s my favorite.”


“That’s okay, honey. Daddy loves you. Good night.” And he brushed her cheek with a kiss.


About a week later, after the story time, Jenny’s daddy asked again, “Do you love me?”


“Daddy, you know I love you.”


“Then will you give me your pearls?”


“Oh, Daddy, not my pearls. But you can have my baby doll. The brand new one I got for my birthday. She is so beautiful and you can have the yellow blanket that matches her sleeper.”


“That’s okay, Honey. Sleep well. God bless you, little one. Daddy loves you.” And as always, he brushed her cheek with a gentle kiss. A few nights later when her daddy came in, Jenny was sitting on her bed with her legs crossed Indian-style. As he came close, he noticed her chin was trembling and one silent tear rolled down her cheek.


“What is it, Jenny? What’s the matter?”


Jenny didn’t say anything but lifted her little hand up to her daddy. When she opened it, there was her little pearl necklace. With a little quiver, she finally said, “Here, Daddy. It’s for you.” With tears gathering in his own eyes, Jenny’s kind daddy reached out with one hand to take the prized necklace. With the other hand he reached into his pocket and pulled out a blue velvet case. He handed the handsome velvet case to Jenny and told her, “Thank you for giving me your most prized possession that you even saved for all by yourself. Here Honey, I have this for you also. I wanted to trade you, but I was going to give this to you tonight either way.”


As Jenny pried open the blue velvet box, so nice a thing itself she’d never known, the glistening white sheen of the rich genuine pearls struck her teary eyes.



[Good News and Bad News]


General George Washington at Valley Forge to his troops: “The good news is that you’re going to get a change of underwear. The bad news is that you have to change it with the man next to you.”


워렌 버펫의 주식투자 길라잡이


여러분, 안녕하십니까?


투자가들이 부시 대통령과 벤 버냉키 연준 의장의 발언을 모기지 시장과 크레딧 시장에 대한 긍정적 징후로 받아들임에 따라 금주의 주식시장 주가는 일제히 상승했습니다. 그리고, 최근의 써브 프라임 모기지 시장 위기로 인해 미국 소비자들의 신용카드 연체율이 지난 해에 비해 급격히 상승했다는 무디스의 보고는 이 같은 징후를 뒷받쳐 줍니다. 또한, 제조업 성장율과 건설 지출의 하락은 금리 인하에 대한 투자가들의 희망을 높여줍니다.


반면에, 탐욕에서 시작되어 무지로 인하여 가속화된 투기꾼들과 무책임한 대출기관들은 혼이 나야 한다는 믿음 아래 정부가 앞장서서 가격 지지를 하는 것은 장기적으로 사태를 더 악화시킨다고 주장하는 비판자들이 있습니다. 또한, 미 상무성은 2분기 GDP 성장율이 3.4%에서 4.0%로 수정되었으며, 연율로 본 개인 소비지출 디플레이터는 연준이 안도하는 범위인 1.9%에 머물고 있다고 발표했습니다.


하지만, 우리는 연준이 아직까지 기준 금리를 인하할 것이라는 발표를 하지 않고 있는 점에 주목해야 합니다. 9월 18일 연준 공개시장 위원회 차기 회의에서 어떤 일이 일어날지 봅시다.


비록 세계 최고갑부라는 왕관을 남미 이동통신사 어메리카 모빌 주식 30 퍼센트를 소유하고 있는 멕시코 재벌 카를로스 슬림에게 물려주기는 했지만, 이같이 불안정한 주식시장에서는 워렌 버펫과 같은 투자의 귀재로부터 그의 포트폴리오와 주식 선택의 배경 논리를 배움으로써 투자에 대한 지식을 갈고 닦을 필요가 있습니다.


뮤추얼 펀드 매니저와 헤지 펀드 매니저 등을 포함한 요즈음 투자 세계는 연간 수익율에, 심지어 최근에는 분기 및 월간 수익율에 초점을 맞추고 있습니다. 그러나, 한번 짠 포트폴리오 대부분이 잘 바뀌지 않는 점을 볼 때 오마하의 현인 워렌 버펫은 투자 테마를 완료시키는 데에 3년 내지 5년이 걸리는 그러한 회사 주식에 투자함으로써 이익을 얻고 있습니다.


이제 증권거래법 제13(F)조에 따라 워렌 버펫이 미 증권감독위원회에 제출한 2분기 주식보유 현황을 한번 살펴 보겠습니다. 탑 10 보유주식은 코카콜라, 웰즈파고 (은행), 어메리칸 익스프레스, 프락터 앤 갬블 (P&G), 존슨 앤 존슨, 벌링턴 노던 싼타 페이 (철도), 웨스코 금융, 무디스, 앤하우저-부쉬, 카노코우필

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